On his "Fair Territory" podcast and YouTube show last week, MLB Insider for The Athletic Ken Rosenthal stated a staggering fact: Just over three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to their respective training camps in Arizona and Florida, 175 free agents remain unsigned. Since Ken's episode, the Houston Astros have signed All-Star closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million dollar contract and the Los Angeles Angels have inked reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year deal, but the vast majority of the marquee free agents at the beginning of the offseason are still looking for a place to play as of today. Understandably, the market was held up by both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but it's been more than a month since the Dodgers committed over a billion dollars to the two Japanese superstars. So why are teams so hesitant to sign these players? And is this slow, drawn out process harming or helping Major League Baseball?
TV Deals
A huge storyline this winter has been the collapse of many teams' RSN's, or regional sports networks. Bally Sports, or the Diamond Sports Group, declared chapter eleven bankruptcy in March, attempting to restructure debts more than $8 billion dollars. Bally Sports, which streamed games for 37 MLB, NBA, and NHL teams, has significantly impacted the incomes of many baseball organizations. MLB teams generate slightly more than sixty million dollars a season from their TV deals, and the collapse of Diamond Sports has limited the financial wherewithal for MLB teams like the San Diego Padres and the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers. Cost-cutting was the reason San Diego moved 25 year-old superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, and dollar flexibility has been a key reason why the Rangers have been hesitant to resign free-agent starter Jordan Montgomery. While their television situation is up in the air, many owners have elected to reduce their payrolls and keep spending to a minimum for the upcoming season.
The "Boras 4"
Another large reason for the shortage of significant signings has been due to what is known as the "Boras 4." Montgomery, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Blake Snell are inarguably the top four free agents left on the market. However, the number of interested teams has dwindled since the beginning of December, for a myriad of reasons. All four players are represented by agent Scott Boras, who is notorious for his ability to land long-term, high annual average value deals for his clients. Boras has also been known to play by his own clock, and sign his players when their value is at its highest point. A key example of this tactic by Boras was during the 2018-2019 offseason, when Boras waited until the opening days of spring training to sign Bryce Harper to a thirteen year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Because Harper and Boras waited out the clock so much, many teams entered the bidding race towards the finish line, and Harper's value escalated to at the time was one of the largest guaranteed deals in MLB history. But perhaps the real reason teams are hesitant to sign Montgomery, Chapman, Bellinger, or Snell is because all of them come with stains on their respective resumes. Bellinger, who was named the NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2023, has advanced metrics that show he got very lucky this past season and that his actual numbers should have been closer to league average. Of course, Bellinger struggled mightily with the Dodgers from 2020-2022, and teams are wary of giving Bellinger a long-term deal when his future production is uncertain. Snell is a similar scenario, because despite the left-hander winning his 2nd Cy Young in six years, he led the league in walks. Snell was very fortunate that most of his free passes did not come around to score, but the law of mathematics show that Snell's luck is bound to run out soon, and his high walk rate will eventually hurt him. As for Chapman, his offensive production was down last year. He had a scorching April, but afterwards, he was one of the worst hitters in baseball. He's got a fantastic glove at the hot corner, but his defensive ability and third base may not be able to compensate for his lack of consistency at the plate in the eyes of general managers. Montgomery has the least amount of baggage, but teams are still hesitant to pay the World Series champion $125 million dollars to likely slot into the middle of their rotation.
Lack of Top-End Talent
Aside from Ohtani, Yamamoto, and the "Boras 4," this free agent class has been very weak. There have been an abundance of deals signed by veteran players hoping to resurrect their careers, ailing starting pitchers, and below average bats. However, pitching has been at such a premium that teams are shelling out tons of money to any and all starting pitchers. Jack Flaherty, who was pitiful last season for the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles, recieved $14 million dollars from the Detroit Tigers. Lance Lynn, who gave up four home runs in an inning last season and was plagued by the long-ball all year long, got $10 million dollars from the Cardinals. Because of the going rate for pitching, a lot of general managers are opting to save their money for next offseason, when the free-agent class will feature Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Juan Soto, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, and more. Many organizations will treat this season as a year to develop young talent, or reset their Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) to help them spend more in future free-agent pursuits.
MLB vs. NBA and NFL
Compared to the NBA and the NFL, MLB's free agency is far less exciting. In basketball and football, essentially all of the top players sign within the opening minutes or hours of the allotted negotiation windows. The main reason for this is because the NBA and NFL have hard salary caps and floors, forcing teams to be more aggressive in signing players in order to put together a competent roster. Major League Baseball not only has no deadline, but no hard salary cap either. With the way the MLBPA (Players' Association) has objected to any discussions with commissioner Rob Manfred about enforcing a deadline for players to sign, it is unlikely that the timeline of MLB Free Agency will change, at least for the foreseeable future. Many fans dislike the current format because it draws out the process over months on end, when the majority of fans want to see players sign immediately so they know what their teams look like on paper. On the other side of the spectrum, however, there is a lot of support for the drawn-out process, as it keeps fans engaged throughout January and February, baseball's least exciting months. I personally enjoy the long months waiting for players to sign. It gives more excitement to the offseason, and results in more rumors and content regarding each team. But with spring training mere days away, this long offseason should finally be coming to a close, and rest assured, it will once again be time for baseball.
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